Possible Tropical Development

There is a Tropical Troublemaker trying to organize in the Gulf of Mexico this AM. The hurricane hunters are flying through and investigating to see if there is a more defined low level circulation.

1015 Satellite

This area has a high chance of being a named system in the next 36-48 hours and it is sitting over very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico. Current sea surface temps are between 82° and 83°.

Even if we don’t have a names system, we will have a tropical disturbance move through Texas in the next two days. As of now  (10:30AM) this tropical wave is moving NW at 15 mph.

movment

Here is the latest track of the forecast models for the potential of Tropical Storm Bill if it does form. My latest thinking is that we will see the wave/Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm move onshore between 3AM-5AM between Port Aransas and Port Lavaca. Rain will work onshore before the “center” approaches landfall and we could see rain spread into NTX as soon as later tonight.

Tropical Tracker Scene Master 3AM

Tropical Tracker 5pm

Tropical Tracker Scene Master track 2

Tropical 2AM

Tropical 7AM

All of the forecast models have been trending a little further west which puts us in a corridor for very heavy rain. Some forecast models are calling for between 6″-8″ of rain.

NTX Futurecast Precip 36hr GFS

This all depends on the exact track of what could be a tropical Low or named storm. Flooding concerns are high with this system as it tracks near NTX. Here is the timing on the potential rain.

Future 1

By 5:00 PM Tuesday afternoon the center could be just North of Austin. However, we will already see rounds of heavy storms rotate into NTX.

future 2

Concerns increase Tuesday night with the center tracking closer to the metroplex. Heavy rain, strong storms, and tornado potential increases Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

future 3

future 4

Bottom line. We are monitoring this Tropical Development closely. This could be a dangerous system with flooding being the biggest concern. Remember Turn around Don’t Drown.

 

Scott

 

 

 

 

Winter Weather Back Again! Where’s Spring?

What a temperature tumble across NTX this morning. Along with the strong cold air advection we are dealing with winter precip. Here is a screen shot from earlier this morning of the CBS11 Live Doppler Radar.

SP Freezing Rain Radar

The Pink colored areas indicated freezing rain and the green just rain but as the morning progresses we will see coverage and intensity increase. Looking at the latest RAP or rapid refresh model and HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) there looks to be a few bands of heavier sleet developing later this morning near Parker county and then also into Rockwall, SE Dallas, Collin to Hunt to Fannin and Delta. This forecast is tricky because it isn’t a widespread band. Here is my latest thinking on the total amount of accumulation from this winter event.

Freezing Totals Today

Notice the higher amounts from central Hunt county, through Hopkins, Fannin and Lamar? This is where I expect a band of heavier sleet to thunder sleet to develop later today into the later afternoon hours.

But of course this all depends on the temperatures and by now if you have looked outside you can see the dramatic change in the weather. Here is the hour by hour forecast for temps and just know that this afternoon we will be near 60° colder than yesterday!

7DAY TREND JEFF

So the forecast for the Winter Weather Advisory hasn’t changed much since it was issued yesterday. Expect the Winter Weather Advisory to continue until 9PM tonight and the Winter Storm Warning for the higher icinig amounts to continue also until 9PM tonight.

Winter Weather Advisory

Winter Storm Warning

The following slides show the NTX futurecast on the amount of coverage expected through the remainder of the the AM and through the afternoon. Notice the intensity picking up after 12PM and continuing through 5PM. Then tonight the precip comes to and end and we are going to get very cold.

NTX FutureCast AM

NTX futurecast 1

NTX FutureCast AM2

ntc futurecast 3

The ground temperatures have been really warm the past few days with our temps in the 70s & 80s but with temps dropping to the 20s there is the potential of roadways getting slick and tonight any wet surface most likely will freeze because look at the forecast lows.

NTX Futurecast Temps

So while we were nice and toasty yesterday, today it is a whole different story. We will update you throug the rest of the morning and the afternoon here and on @CBS11 @CBSDFW.

Stay warm and stay safe.

Scott