Possible Tropical Development

There is a Tropical Troublemaker trying to organize in the Gulf of Mexico this AM. The hurricane hunters are flying through and investigating to see if there is a more defined low level circulation.

1015 Satellite

This area has a high chance of being a named system in the next 36-48 hours and it is sitting over very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico. Current sea surface temps are between 82° and 83°.

Even if we don’t have a names system, we will have a tropical disturbance move through Texas in the next two days. As of now  (10:30AM) this tropical wave is moving NW at 15 mph.

movment

Here is the latest track of the forecast models for the potential of Tropical Storm Bill if it does form. My latest thinking is that we will see the wave/Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm move onshore between 3AM-5AM between Port Aransas and Port Lavaca. Rain will work onshore before the “center” approaches landfall and we could see rain spread into NTX as soon as later tonight.

Tropical Tracker Scene Master 3AM

Tropical Tracker 5pm

Tropical Tracker Scene Master track 2

Tropical 2AM

Tropical 7AM

All of the forecast models have been trending a little further west which puts us in a corridor for very heavy rain. Some forecast models are calling for between 6″-8″ of rain.

NTX Futurecast Precip 36hr GFS

This all depends on the exact track of what could be a tropical Low or named storm. Flooding concerns are high with this system as it tracks near NTX. Here is the timing on the potential rain.

Future 1

By 5:00 PM Tuesday afternoon the center could be just North of Austin. However, we will already see rounds of heavy storms rotate into NTX.

future 2

Concerns increase Tuesday night with the center tracking closer to the metroplex. Heavy rain, strong storms, and tornado potential increases Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

future 3

future 4

Bottom line. We are monitoring this Tropical Development closely. This could be a dangerous system with flooding being the biggest concern. Remember Turn around Don’t Drown.

 

Scott